Decrease EXP hair style coupon price

[opman]

Firstly, is an EXP ticket supposed to give us a random hair amongst the 5 listed in each town like kerning?
If it is, a 2,100 nx EXP ticket for a random hair amongst the 5 exp types available then it'd make more sense price wise. But after various feedbacks, the EXP ticket will give the user a random 1 out of 21 hair types (vip and exp). 

If 1 in 21 chances is so, 6 days of voting for 1 ticket is unreasonable for a 1 in 21 chances of getting the desired hairstyle. Furthermore, since VIP ticket is not random and is considered a premium item, the prices for the random EXP ticket should not be merely halfed priced only.

Currently
EXP hair style: 2,100 NX (5 - 6 days of voting)
- 4.8% (1 in 21) chances of obtaining desired hair style

VIP hair style: 5,700 NX (14 - 15 days of voting)
- 100% (1 confirmed) desired hair style of choice in 16 choices (not random).

Suggestion: A decrease the prices per exp ticket instead of raising overall vote NX prices to avoid charms surplus.
New (NX : % cost)

Here, 4,343 / 21 times = 207 NX cost (4.8% chance of desired hair) could well possibly be the true worth of an EXP ticket.
Where scaling up to a 100% chance of desired hair would most likely cost 4,343 NX.

Assuming in all scenarios:
(1) all chances for VIP and EXP styles in the 21 chances are of equal chance
     (it may not be so for EXP, but we'll use equal chances as the basis for calculations sake and reduction of errors)
(2) No repeat of same undesired hairstyles, meaning u get 1 after the other and not the previous one again
     (again, for illustrative purposes only and risk of obtaining undesired hairstyles multiple times are possible).
(3) 400 NX per vote
(4) Using of 5700 for a 1 in 16 chance as a benchmark for NX to % chance ratio

New (simplified with less accuracy)
EXP hair style: 250 NX (1 day of voting)
- 5,700 / 21 = 271.42... : using 5,700 NX as the basis and over a random 21 outcome
- round down to = 250 NX : considering random factor involved, leniency should be provided for.

Please feel free to suggest other figures to aid in this thread, towards a more well balanced gameplay.
Thank you.

Edited May 8, 2021 by opman

[sewil]

EXP was always intentionally shitty to make you buy the VIP one, though I think it should be a bit of a yolo buy when you don't really care about your hairstyle so I don't think it should line up exactly with the rng, but it could be cheaper, maybe like 1k

Edited May 6, 2021 by sewil

[opman]

2 hours ago, sewil said:

maybe like 1k

just a random num? whats the rationale

[sewil]

4 hours ago, opman said:

just a random num? whats the rationale

I think it needs to be lowered since EXP is pretty much useless as it is now, basically no one buys EXP unless they don't really care about the hairstyle or if they think they're gonna be lucky. I think 250 is too cheap however since that makes VIP useless, people are just gonna buy lots of EXP and use it as scrolls basically, which will make selecting a specific hairstyle an RNG game. I think there should be a bit of punishment in getting the wrong hairstyle, just like there's punishment in losing a bet.

Edited May 6, 2021 by sewil

[opman]

3 hours ago, sewil said:

however since that makes VIP useless,

i don't think VIP will become solely useless since it's a 1 confimed hair of choice and not rng, aside from that, not many folks would even want the 5 EXP hairstyles in the first place, hence it is fine for players to get cheap EXP tickets and this section deals with character looks but not items such as charms, we do not need to punish players by having a higher penalty (for a exp ticket that is random ) for wanting to beautify their characters. 

[Human]

For v.54 Kerning City hair salon (16 VIP + EXP hairstyles I think):
Assume you spend 5700 NX for 1 VIP coupon and 5700 NX for ~2.71 EXP coupons. (2100 * 2.71 = 5700)
For the same amount of NX, the probability of getting the desired VIP hair is 100%, while the EXP hair is ~17%. *

If you wanted the EXP coupon's chance to be 25%, then its price would need to be 1425 NX. **
  30% => ~1200    NX
  50% =>     712.5 NX
  60% =>   ~600    NX
100% =>   ~355    NX

Though, I don't know which rate would be the best.

* Calculation 1:  
  5700 / 2100 = ~2.71
  ~2.71 * (1 / 16) = ~0.1696 = ~17% 
** Calculation 1 reversed (shortened):
  25% = 0.25
  (5700 / 16) / 0.25 = 1425

 

Colour coding:
Price of a single VIP coupon.
Price of a single REG/EXP coupon.
Probability of getting a specific hairstyle by buying EXP coupons after spending as much NX as the price of a single VIP coupon.
Total number of female VIP and EXP hairstyles available from a hair salon.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Human

[opman]

2 hours ago, Human said:

5700 / 2100 = ~2.71
  ~2.71 * (1 / 16) = ~0.1696 = ~17% 

We shouldn't use 1/16 as the basis but rather 1/21 since the main purpose is to reduce an EXP ticket and not a VIP. By using 1 in 21 chances, we'd get 13% chance of attaining desired hair with the use of 5,700 nx, rather than a 17% chance.

Current figures based on old 2,100 nx per exp ticket
- Number of EXP ticket using 5,700 nx:
5700 / 2100 = 2.71 EXP tickets

- % chance of desired EXP hair using 5,700 nx:
(1/21)*2.71 = 12.9% ≈ 13%
For 5,700 nx, there is a 13% chance of getting the desired EXP hair. 

3 hours ago, Human said:

** Calculation 1 reversed (shortened):
  25% = 0.25
  (5700 / 16) / 0.25 = 1425

Hm from the calculations, since 5,700 nx gives 17% chance, how would 1,425 nx give 25% chance? Might be an calculation mistake but unless of course 1,425 nx is the new rebalanced you're implying, if so, how would u justify 1,425?

3 hours ago, Human said:

30% => ~1200    NX
  50% =>     712.5 NX
  60% =>   ~600    NX
100% =>   ~355    NX

Higher % chances of getting desired hair should come with higher NX amount being spent as we're dealing with probabilities, not sure how higher % chances would result in cheaper nx having to be spent.

Current figures based on old 2,100 nx per exp ticket
25%       = 10,950 nx
30%       = 13,140 nx
50%       = 21,900 nx
100%     = 43,800 nx

- 1% chance would in turn be currently worth (5700 / 13) ≈ 438 nx

[Human]

On 5/7/2021 at 5:48 AM, opman said:

We shouldn't use 1/16 as the basis but rather 1/21 since the main purpose is to reduce an EXP ticket and not a VIP. By using 1 in 21 chances, we'd get 13% chance of attaining desired hair with the use of 5,700 nx, rather than a 17% chance.

I use 16 because from what I gather that's the total number of female hairstyles available from Kerning City in v.54. That is including both VIP and EXP hairstyles. I suppose you used 21 because that's the number you find when you check how many hairstyles there are from https://bbb.hidden-street.net/cash-shop/beauty-parlor/ and thought I was only counting the VIPs. But that link includes some styles that shouldn't be in the current version of Phoenix.

 

On 5/7/2021 at 5:48 AM, opman said:

Higher % chances of getting desired hair should come with higher NX amount being spent as we're dealing with probabilities, not sure how higher % chances would result in cheaper nx having to be spent.

Assuming you want a particular EXP hairstyle, a single EXP coupon always has a 1/16 chance to give you your desired hairstyle. This probability does not change unless we go to another hair salon or change the number of available haircuts. So, if we want our hairstyle we need to buy EXP coupons until one finally gives us the one we want. That is, with the 1/16 chance per coupon, we will have to buy 16 coupons on average to get our desired haircut.

Cash Shop has an infinite coupon supply, but our NX is not. If you had only 5700 NX, what would be the chances of you getting that EXP hair before your NX ran out? You can only afford 2 EXP coupons with that (2 * 2100 = 4200 NX), which is 2 chances of 1/16 (= 6.25%), which is a 12.5% chance in total.

However, if we lowered the price of EXP coupons, we could buy more EXP coupons. The cheaper the EXP coupons, the more we can buy. The more EXP coupons we buy, the more chances we get. 

 

Let's assume again you spend 5700 NX (the price of a VIP coupon, for the sake of comparison) whether on VIP or EXP tickets and try to get a desired haircut:

• If you want a VIP haircut you would buy 1 VIP coupon for 5700 NX and get your desired style with a 100% chance.
• If you want an EXP haircut and spend the same amount of 5700 NX on EXP coupons, you will have bought ~2.71 coupons in total and your chance of getting your desired hairstyle would be ~17%.

Of course in a real setting, you wouldn't be able to buy exactly 2.71 coupons but 2 or 3 coupons, which come to 12.5% and 18.75% chances respectively. It would depend on how much NX you have.

If the price of an EXP coupon was 1425 NX instead of 2100, and we spent 5700 NX on them, we could buy 4 coupons and the chance would be 25%. If the price was 600 NX, and we only had 5700 NX to spend, we could afford 9 coupons and the chance of that would be 56.25%.

Edited May 11, 2021 by Human

[opman]

1 hour ago, Human said:

I use 16 because from what I gather that's the total number of hairstyles available from Kerning City in v.54. That is including both VIP and EXP hairstyles. I suppose you used 21 because that's the number you find when you check how many hairstyles there are from https://bbb.hidden-street.net/cash-shop/beauty-parlor/ and thought I was only counting the VIPs. But that link includes some styles that shouldn't be in the current version of Phoenix.

 

Phoenix hairstyles are currently scuffed so let's wait until arnah gives some confirmation.

1 hour ago, Human said:

However, if we lowered the price of EXP coupons, we could buy more EXP coupons. The cheaper the EXP coupons, the more we can buy. The more EXP coupons we buy, the more chances we get. 

 

Of course lowering prices for the exp coupons would increase the chances we get and i've already mentioned this prior, i was mentioning about your charts as my first glance at it was awkward, considering readers will usually associate % chances with nx to be spent and not % chances with price of exp ticket.

Edited May 11, 2021 by opman

[Human]

3 minutes ago, opman said:

i dont think u got what was asked, you may want to relook at the 30% = 1200 nx, 50% = 712.5 nx... portion.

Oh, by "30% = 1200 NX" I mean that "30% chance is achieved if we spend 5700 NX buying EXP coupons that cost 1200 NX each." The 1200 and 712.5 NX there is the cost of a single EXP coupon, not the total NX spent.

5700 / 1200 = 4.75
4.75 * (1 / 16)  = ~0.2969 = ~30%

5700 / 712.5 = 8
8 * (1 / 16) = 0.5 = 50%

 

[opman]

 

30 minutes ago, opman said:

, i was mentioning about your charts as my first glance at it was awkward, considering readers will usually associate % chances with nx to be spent and not % chances with price of exp ticket.

yea i removed the numbers and rewrote for better illustrative means on my sentence, but i get what u mean.